| Hirsch Report February 2005 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Page Index | ||
| Table of Contents | ||
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| 2 | 32 | 62 |
| 3 | 33 | 63 |
| 4 | 34 | 64 |
| 5 | 35 | 65 |
| 6 | 36 | 66 |
| 7 | 37 | 67 |
| – – 8 – – | 38 | 68 |
| 9 | 39 | 69 |
| 10 | 40 | 70 |
| 11 | 41 | 71 |
| 12 | 42 | 72 |
| 13 | 43 | 73 |
| 14 | 44 | 74 |
| 15 | 45 | 75 |
| 16 | 46 | 76 |
| 17 | 47 | 77 |
| 18 | 48 | 78 |
| 19 | 49 | 79 |
| 20 | 50 | 80 |
| 21 | 51 | 81 |
| 22 | 52 | 82 |
| 23 | 53 | 83 |
| 24 | 54 | 84 |
| 25 | 55 | 85 |
| 26 | 56 | 86 |
| 27 | 57 | 87 |
| 28 | 58 | 88 |
| 29 | 59 | 89 |
| 30 | 60 | 90 |
| 91 | ||
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I. INTRODUCTION
Oil is the lifeblood of modern civilization. It fuels the vast majority of the world’s mechanized transportation equipment - - Automobiles, trucks, airplanes, trains, ships, farm equipment, the military, etc. Oil is also the primary feedstock for many of the chemicals that are essential to modern life. This study deals with the upcoming physical shortage of world conventional oil - - an event that has the potential to inflict disruptions and hardships on the economies of every country.
The earth's endowment of oil is finite and demand for oil continues to increase with time. Accordingly, geologists know that at some future date, conventional oil supply will no longer be capable of satisfying world demand. At that point world conventional oil production will have peaked and begin to decline.
A number of experts project that world production of conventional oil could occur in the relatively near future, as summarized in Table I-1.1 Such projections are fraught with uncertainties because of poor data, political and institutional self-interest, and other complicating factors. The bottom line is that no one knows with certainty when world oil production will reach a peak,2 but geologists have no doubt that it will happen.
Table I-1. Predictions of World Oil Production Peaking
| Projected Date | Source of Projection |
|---|---|
| 2006-2007 | Bakhitari |
| 2007-2009 | Simmons |
| After 2007 | Skrebowski |
| Before 2009 | Deffeyes |
| Before 2010 | Goodstein |
| Around 2010 | Campbell |
| After 2010 | World Energy Council |
| 2010-2020 | Laherrere |
| 2016 | EIA (Nominal) |
| After 2020 | CERA |
| 2025 or later | Shell |
| No visible Peak | Lynch |
——————————
1 A more detailed list is given in the following chapter in
Table II-1.
2 In this study we interchangeably
refer to the peaking of world conventional oil
production as oil peaking or simply as peaking.
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Liberty
is not for these slaves; I do not advocate
inflicting it against their conscience. On the contrary,
I am strongly in favor of letting them crawl and grovel
all they please before whatever
fraud or combination of
frauds they choose to venerate... Our whole practical
government is grounded in mob psychology and... the
Boobus Americanus will follow
any command that promises
to make him safer.
— — H. L. Mencken